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Behind the scenes with MBTA data.

Every month, we send out a survey to MBTA riders (you can sign up here!) and use the results to produce the Customer Satisfaction metrics that we publish on our dashboard. The four metrics (overall satisfaction, satisfaction with a rider’s most recent trip, satisfaction with the reliability of the MBTA, and satisfaction with the MBTA’s communication) are normally reported for respondents who had taken a trip on the MBTA within the past week. We exclude respondents who had not taken a trip within a week of completing the survey. 

This methodology allows us to ensure that survey responses are current and relevant and that the panel is representative of usual frequent riders; we have used other methodologies like in-person Intercept Surveys to target infrequent riders and visitors. Due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, however, many of our usual frequent riders have stopped taking the MBTA. As a result, until service and ridership have begun to return to normal, we will be reporting customer satisfaction in the following ways:

  • Satisfaction with a rider’s most recent trip will be reported only for respondents who have taken a trip within the past week
  • Overall satisfaction, satisfaction with reliability, and satisfaction with communication will be reported for all respondents

For trip ratings, we wanted to make sure that the metric reflected trips that were recent enough for the respondent to remember their trip well. In addition, as social distancing measures continue, many respondents will not have taken the MBTA for over a month, and their most recent trip will continue to be one from early March. For example, their April and March trip scores will be reflecting service from the same actual experience, making it impossible to measure changes in this metric on a month-to-month basis for these respondents who are not currently riding the MBTA.

However, we will report the other metrics for all respondents to the survey so that results for these questions can be comparable over time. The riders who are continuing to use our service are not a representative subset of all of our usual riders, and they do not respond to surveys in the same way. When possible, we want to continue to report customer satisfaction results from a group of respondents whose makeup is relatively stable over time to better track trends in customer satisfaction. Additionally, we understand that residents of the area still have opinions about the MBTA, how it is communicating, and the service it is providing, whether or not they have recently taking a trip on public transit. We want to continue to hear from all of our riders, regardless of if and how they are currently traveling, and our customer satisfaction reporting mirrors this interest.

In the past few weeks we have kept you updated about MBTA ridership during the COVID-19 pandemic on this blog, and we plan to keep updating the blog regularly as long as there is something to discuss. You can read previous posts here, here and here

If you’re just looking for the total ridership by line and by station, you can download that data here (Last updated 5/28):

Validations by Line [csv]

Validations by Station [csv]

We would like to reiterate that Governor Baker has issued a stay-at-home order, non-essential business are closed, and we would implore our riders to respect this and stay at home whenever possible. In the Governor’s words: “Just because the T is open does not mean we think it’s a good idea to take the train downtown to meet up with friends. 

By limiting the use of public transportation to essential activities, we will not only slow the spread of the virus – but we will better protect our health care workers, grocery store workers and others who are working every day to keep us safe. 

Everyone is advised to stay at home and limit all unnecessary activities.”

Please see the continuously-updated page here for the latest updates on how the MBTA is responding to the pandemic: www.mbta.com/covid-19

Around the Country

Other transit agencies have also had their ridership greatly affected by the pandemic. While not all agencies are sharing data publicly and frequently, we did a quick look to find other data points. If you have seen reporting from another agency (or you work for an agency) feel free to reach out at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

BART in San Francisco is seeing a ridership drop of 94% and WMATA in D.C. has had rail ridership and bus ridership drops as much as 96% and 82%, respectively.

The CTA in Chicago has kept normal service on five of its eight rail lines even with an 82% decrease in system ridership, while New York’s MTA is running on its “Essential Service Plan,” which preserves most peak service and eliminates some lines on weekdays after experiencing an 87% rail ridership drop and a 60% drop for bus.

Translink in Vancouver, BC, especially, has seen a sharp decrease in bus ridership with an 82% drop.

The Data

Our usual ridership reporting includes factors to account for passengers who we do not observe through our automated equipment, and we usually wait at least a few weeks before reporting anything due to the delay in transferring data from our vehicles. We also conduct in-person counts to verify automated data and improve accuracy for our end of year reporting. 

We did not have time to do our normal analysis and reporting, so we had to focus on the best sources we have that were reasonably representative of the system. So we focused on two data sources for this post: Counts of validations at gated stations from the fare collection system and bus ridership estimates from automated passenger counters. Because these sources usually have extra processing and QA/QC done as noted in the previous paragraph, all ridership estimates in this post should be considered very preliminary and subject to change.

Rapid Transit

To examine ridership on the rapid transit system, we used validations (taps or ticket insertions) at the 64 gated stations in the MBTA system. This data came from the fare collection system and is not adjusted to account for passengers who enter the gates without interacting with the equipment (this can be children, fare evaders, or people who enter when the gates aren’t functioning). 

We set up a special data transfer to gather the total validations by day, and then grouped them by station and by line. For stations where passengers can board multiple lines, we use a rough “split” factor to assign riders to each line (For example, at Park St, we estimate that 54% of people entering the gates are then going to board the Red Line, and 46% go on to board the Green Line).

Ridership since 3/24:

Ridership has continued to slide steadily down since the governor’s order to close non-essential businesses, and now is under 40,000 validations per day. We are seeing similar distribution between lines and stations as we did at the beginning stages of the pandemic.

On weekends, ridership has also dropped, but not to the same extent as weekdays when compared to “normal” times. Saturday validations on April 11 were 64% of the previous week’s weekday average, and Sunday validations were 47%. This compares to Saturdays usually being about 51% of weekday taps, and Sundays having about 38% of the weekday number (using calendar year 2019 data). 

Bus

Overall bus ridership shows similar trends over time as gated stations, though the drop since 3/24 is less steep. We are seeing ridership on buses drop by about 5% per week since the Governor’s order. Please note that these data have fairly high margins of error, so looking at overall trends is more useful. Some of the challenges in the data are accounting for buses with lower samples of APCs, and accounting for additional trips that were added which were not part of the schedule programmed into the software on-board buses (“run-as-directed” trips). 

Ridership last week was around 80-85,000 passenger trips per day. 

Here are the top 20 routes by ridership and their change from our baseline week. The geographic trend in ridership change is similar to previous weeks. Route 116 (asterisked) has significantly less certainty than other routes due to low APC coverage.

Ridership by Time of Day

Last time, we took a look at how ridership on gated stations had changed from our usual weekday patterns. In the following chart, you can see the difference in trips on our buses between the baseline week and Friday, April 10:

Note that the above chart likely undercounts ridership where we have added additional RAD (“run as directed”) trips on routes and times with high demand. But, you can see the new pattern of ridership pretty clearly. On buses, we see a single peak around 3 PM, and steady ridership throughout the day with the peak just slightly higher than the rest of the day.

We will continue to update you on MBTA ridership at this blog as things progress. If you’re looking for something to do while you stay at home, why not take a look at some of the datasets on our Open Data Portal?

 

The COVID-19 pandemic obviously continues to have great impacts on MBTA ridership. In the past few weeks we have kept you updated on these pages, and we plan to keep updating the blog weekly as long as there is something to discuss. This post focuses on ridership on subway and bus during the last week; you can read previous posts here and here.

If you’re just looking for the total ridership by line and by station, you can download that data here (Last updated 4/14):

Validations by Line [csv]

Validations by Station [csv]

We would like to reiterate that Governor Baker has issued a stay-at-home order, non-essential business are closed, and we would implore our riders to respect this and stay at home whenever possible. In the Governor’s words: “Just because the T is open does not mean we think it’s a good idea to take the train downtown to meet up with friends.

By limiting the use of public transportation to essential activities, we will not only slow the spread of the virus – but we will better protect our health care workers, grocery store workers and others who are working every day to keep us safe.

Everyone is advised to stay at home and limit all unnecessary activities.”

Please see the continuously-updated page here for the latest updates on how the MBTA is responding to the pandemic: www.mbta.com/covid-19

The Data

Our usual ridership reporting includes factors to account for passengers who we do not observe through our automated equipment, and we usually wait at least a few weeks before reporting anything due to the delay in transferring data from our vehicles. We also conduct in-person counts to verify automated data and improve accuracy for our end of year reporting. 

We did not have time to do our normal analysis and reporting, so we had to focus on the best sources we have that were reasonably representative of the system. So we focused on two data sources for this post: Counts of validations at gated stations from the fare collection system and bus ridership estimates from automated passenger counters. Because these sources usually have extra processing and QA/QC done as noted in the previous paragraph, all ridership estimates in this post should be considered very preliminary and subject to change.

Rapid Transit

To examine ridership on the rapid transit system, we used validations (taps or ticket insertions) at the 64 gated stations in the MBTA system. This data came from the fare collection system and is not adjusted to account for passengers who enter the gates without interacting with the equipment (this can be children, fare evaders, or people who enter when the gates aren’t functioning).

We set up a special data transfer to gather the total validations by day, and then grouped them by station and by line. For stations where passengers can board multiple lines, we use a rough “split” factor to assign riders to each line (For example, at Park St, we estimate that 54% of people entering the gates are then going to board the Red Line, and 46% go on to board the Green Line).

Last week, ridership ended its drop at about the same time as non-essential businesses closed and has been largely steady since then. The below chart shows the validations per day for the last two weeks, including weekends. On the second axis, we show the percent of our baseline “normal” week this is. Note that for the baseline Saturday and Sunday comparison, we excluded the Orange Line data for the weekends of 2/1 and 2/15 when multiple stations were closed for track work and the gates on the remaining stations were left open on purpose. 

The validations per day for the last two weeks, including weekends

By the end of the week, the number of validations remained close to the same for three consecutive days, suggesting that indeed, travel had been minimized and was about 10-11% of “normal.” On weekends, validations had dropped less, but were still 14-16% of the average comparable weekend in February.

Bus

Overall bus ridership shows similar trends as gated stations, though the drop is less steep. After Tuesday, ridership became fairly steady, as while we estimate some change day-to-day, there is a moderate margin of error on all the estimates. Some of the challenges in the data are accounting for buses with lower samples of APCs, and accounting for additional trips that were added which were not part of the schedule programmed into the software on-board buses (“run-as-directed” trips). 

Ridership in the second half of last week remained steady at around 90,000 passenger trips per day. 

Bus ridership in March 2020

Here are the top 20 routes by ridership and their change from our baseline week. The geographic trend in ridership change is similar to previous weeks.

The top 20 routes by ridership and their change from our baseline week.

Ridership by Time of Day

With so many people who normally commute during peak hours staying home, the very nature of the “peak” has changed. We decided to look at how ridership has changed over the course of the day. This is not only interesting, but also helps inform MBTA operations so they can ensure we are scheduling enough service to maintain physical distance for essential passengers.

The following charts show validations at gated stations, sorted by line and grouped by half hour period, for an average weekday in our “baseline” week of February 24, 2020, and the same data for March 24 through March 27, 2020.

 Validations at gated stations, sorted by line and grouped by half hour period, for an average weekday in our “baseline” week of February 24, 2020

Validations at gated stations, sorted by line and grouped by half hour period, for an average weekday in the week of March 24, 2020

In the first image, showing “normal” ridership, we see significant, defined peaks on every line. Roughly 30,000 validations occurred during both the 8:00-8:30 AM period and the 5:00-5:30 PM period. We also see a smaller peak at around 3 PM when school gets out, especially on the Orange Line. You may notice the Green Line has more validations later in the day – this is because riders on the Green Line tend to live on the above-ground portion and work on the subway portion, so we capture fewer of the taps in the morning for regular commuters.

The second image from last week still shows two peak periods, but they are less defined and occur earlier than our usual peaks. In the morning we are seeing the most taps in the period from 7-7:30 AM, and nearly as many in the 6-6:30 AM period, while the 8-8:30 period has fewer validations. In the afternoon, we’re seeing a peak from 3-4:30 PM, rather than our usual peak at 5 PM. While we are not experts on health care, this seems to correspond with the traditional 3 PM and 7 PM shift change times at hospitals. Looking at the stations that are closest to major hospitals gives us a further clue. Here is the chart for March 24-27, selecting just Charles/MGH (in red), Bowdoin (blue) and Tufts Medical Center (orange):

Validation chart for March 24-27, selecting just Charles/MGH (in red), Bowdoin (blue) and Tufts Medical Center (orange)

While the MBTA is currently running a Saturday schedule, we have used this information to add additional service at times of higher demand in order to provide enough space for essential workers to ride and maintain physical distancing. We will continue collecting these data and using it to make service decisions as we continue our response to the crisis.